Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
